Candlestick Formation

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Meramal Pasaran Forex dengan Fibonacci

Fibonacci adalah satu alat atau teknik untuk meramal trend atau pasaran Forex.Ia boleh digandingkan dengan lain-lain carta seperti carta candlestick, carta corak bar, penunjuk dan sebagainya untuk menentukan jual beli sesuatu gandingan matawang di dalam pasaran Forex.

Proses pembelian boleh dilakukan jika carta candlestick mengujudkan corak Bullish engulfing candlestick, Morning Star, Tweezer bottom dan Double bottom.Proses penjualan termasuklah Bearish engulfing candlestick, Evening Star, Tweezer Top, dan Double Top.

Pengenalan teknik Fibonacci

Teknik Fibonacci menggunakan nombor-nombor yang berturut seperti berikut:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,..

Nombor-nombor tersebut dikira dengan mencampurkan kedua-dua nombor sebelumnya.sebagai contoh:

3 + 5 = 8
5 + 8 = 13
8 + 13 = 21
13 + 21 = 34

Di dalam meramal pasaran Forex, nisbah nombor Fibonacci digunakan untuk meramalkan proses jual beli gandingan matawang, kebanyakkan pedagang-pedagang profesional menggunakan nisbah-nisbah Nombor Fibonacci untuk melakukan proses jual beli.

Nisbah Fibonacci seperti contoh berikut .

Katakan anda mengambil contoh 4 nombor berturut Fibonacci iaitu:

13, 21, 34, 55

Dengan membahagikan antara dua nombor tersebut di atas, anda akan memperolehi nombor nisbah separti berikut:

• 13/21 = 0.618 atau 61.8% 55/34 = 1.618 atau 161.8%
• 34/55 = 0.618 atau 61.8% 21/55 = 0.382 atau 38.2%
• 34/21 = 1.618 atau 161.8% 13/34 = 0.382 atau 38.2%

Punca kuasa dua (Square root) 0.618 = 0.786
Punca kuasa dua (Square root) 1.618 = 1.27

Oleh itu nisbah-nisbah yg digunakan dalam teknik Fibonacci ialah:

• 0.382 =38.2%
• 0.50 = 50%
• 0.618 = 61.8%
• 0.786 = 78.6% (76.4% digunakan iaitu 38.2 x 2 = 76.4% )
• 1.27 = 127%
• 1.618 = 161.8%
• 2.618 = 261.8%

Fibonacci Re-tracement

Retracements atau dalam bahasa Melayu dipanggil bergerak semula.Sebagai contoh katakan selepas pasaran meningkat, ia akan turun dan bergerak meningkat kembali.Pergerakkan meningkat kembali kebiasaannya tidak sepenuhnya seperti pergerakkan sebelumnya.Pasaran akan bergerak kembali diantara 50% hingga 61.8% sahaja. Oleh itu nisbah Retracements (pergerakkan kembali) yg harus diperhatikan untuk melakukan proses jual beli mengikut teknik Fibonacci ialah:

38.2%, 50%, 61.8% dan 78.6% (76.4%)

Prosess Pembelian (BUY)

Sebagai contoh untuk melakukan proses pembelian, tunggu harga atau pasaran meningkat dari point A hingga ke point B dan bergerak semula atau menurun kembali ke bawah dari point B ke point C. Selepas ia mencecah ke bawah paras 38.2%, 50% atau 61.8% di point C, ia akan naik semula ke point D. Oleh itu proses pembelian boleh dilakukan selepas ia mencecah point C dan kembali meningkat. Lihat gambar rajah berikut:

Prosess Penjualan (SELL)

Untuk melakukan proses penjualan, tunggu harga atau pasaran menurun dari point A hingga ke point B dan bergerak semula atau meningkat kembali ke atas dari point B ke point C. Selepas ia mencecah ke atas paras 38.2%, 50%, atau 61.8% di point C, ia akan turun semula ke point D. Oleh itu proses penjualan boleh dilakukan selepas ia mencecah ke point C dan kembali menurun. 

 

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Meramal pasaran dengan Trendline

Ramai trader-trader yang profesional di luar sana menggunakan teknik trendline.

Trendline merupakan "line " atau garisan yang di lukis dalam chart untuk mengetahui pergerakan pasaran dan juga di gunakan untuk mencari peluang yang sesuai untuk memasuki pasaran.

Setelah anda membaca artikel saya mengenai zigzag,susah tentu anda akan tahu mengenai high,highest,low dan lowest.

Konsep trendline setelah anda memasukakan zigzag indicator ialah untuk mengenal pasti adakah pasaran tersebut dalam berkedaan "bullish","bearish" atau "sideway".

Di dalam tutorial ini saya tidak menggunakan zigzag,tetapi saya menggunakan cara manual untuk mencari high dan low.

Step yang perlu anda lakukan untuk setup trendline adalah seperti berikut :

1. Cari Time frame yang kecil medium seperti M15,M30,H1,H4
2. Kenal pasti di manakah A1,B1,C1 bagi wave 1
3. Lukiskan garisan di antara A1 dan C1 bagi wave 1
4. Kenal pasti semula A2,B2,C2 bagi wave 2
5. Lukiskan garisan di antara A2 dan C2 bagi wave 2
6. Kemudian sambungakan garisan terus antara A1 ke A2
7. Kemudian sambungakan garisan terus antara B1 ke B2 

Apakah yang anda dapat lihat??? adakah ianya menunjukkan trend akan naik atau jatuh ? adakah apa yang saya buat ini betul ??

*Key untuk troubleshoot signal yang anda buat betul atau salah sambungakan garisan terus antara C1 ke C2,adakah anda dapat melihat support dan resistance sebelum ini ? (Bar yang lepas)

Selepas anda melukiskan garisan pada chart dan dapat melihat trendline yang anda buat betul,cuba tukar timeframe kepada yang lebih besar seperti di D1. Jadi kesimpulannya,anda dapat melihat di manakah candlestick tersebut bergerak,jika terlalu banyak support berbanding resistance,maka trend menuju bullish (naik) dan sebaliknya untuk bearish (turun)

Di harapkan anda dapat banyak manafat daripada teknik trendline ini,mencuba dahulu di akaun demo,insyallah profit menanti anda.jika cara di gunakan betul dan tiada pengaruh fundamental yang besar menggangu keputusan analisis.

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Tip's & Trick Safety to trade on forex

This technique is a tips how to trade in "Safe" without risk within the Forex market which have potential of 300% win and 300% lose.

First Tips
Support & Resistance (High and Highest, Low and Lowest)

In this section, it is difficult to explain.But it's very important, because it requires a relatively long analysis, before you make a decision.

Support & Resistance is the second key after pivot,Which pivot is a "Gravitiy price" with another calculation for the Support & Resistance.This snaphoot show's how do you can spot the Support & Resistance by the pivot, to provide a real market trend.

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How to use Zigzag Indicator

Some of the traders who know and do not know how the price action indicator mennggunakan called ZIGZAG.

Zigzag is, the only indicator in MetaTrader to use the High and  Low.even it's just drawing a line from Highest and Lowest, High & Low,actually Zigzag can also provide much guidance the current market movements and futures.

For Example, zigzag can be seen from the function to support and resistance  Fibonnaci, Elliot Wave patterns and wave.

Zigzag will use the term as follows:

[KEY-POINT]

Highest, High = Highest prices and higher price.
Lowest, Low = Lowest prices and lower price.

Lowest High =  Lower Price, but the high price level (ressistance).
Highest Low = The Highest price, but the low price level (support)

It is difficult for me to explain more about zigazag.Walau However, I will give you a diagram for you, to see how the function actually zigazag.

See Price Action vs. Volatility

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Forecast Forex Market using Fibonacci

style="text-align: left;">What is Fibonacci Re-tracement

Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool used by many technical traders to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. The notion of retracement is used in many indicators such as Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, Elliott Wave theory and more. After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these lines.

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Volatility prediction vs Price Action prediction

There are two flaws in the signal action.Between voltality and price action that I would describe the weaknesses and advantages on these both indicators.

Volatility

• Only in some difficult long-term and short term.
• Easy to give false signals from true signal, a lot of "noise"
• Have to wait until the signal volatility occur
• "Moving averages, Stochastic, MACD, among them are Alligator, Bolinger Band" and so on, with a Moving average calculation.
• Signal occurs at the breakout in the trend.
• It's difficult to put the Stop Loss by estimates.

Price Action

• Can be considered for short and long term.
• Less give false signals.
• More efficient signal seen before volatility signal occur.
• "Candlestick, spread movement, High & Low, Volume Market, Support & Resistance, Zigzag".
• Signal occurs at the Time Frame consumed.
• Easy to place Stop Loss estimates.

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What is Forex ?

"Forex" is an abbreviation of the word Foreign Exchange.

"Wikipedia : The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global, worldwide decentralized financial market for trading currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange market determines the relative values of different currencies."

• Forex Market have 2 way.Profit can take when market prices are up or down.
• 24-hour market, "Forex" schedule begins on Monday at 00:00 GMT and close late on Friday.
• While in the day Saturday and Sunday,Forex Market is closed.(24 hours a day except weekends)
• Market liquidity is always active.Trade liquidity had reached USD $ 4.5 Trillions per-day.
• The Forex market is not controlled by any individual, association even a country. (Global)

For those who are Muslim, "Forex" is lawful, is confirmed by the Mufti Perak.You may refer the issues in Perak Mufti website: http://mufti.perak.gov.my/kemusykilan/Musykil_utama.htm

There are many who doubt the law Forex.

Generally there are 2 types of accounts offered by Forex Broker, 

• a "swap" account
• a "swap free" account.

Swap here means a charge imposed when trading through a day of trading (GMT 00: 00), if this happens then we will be charged as "overnight charge". The concept is like usury in which this type of account is unlawful by syarak.But many brokers also provide "swap free" or Islamic accounts for Muslims.

These accounts are usually only charge a trading / commission payments once upon entering the trading, the account type is allowed in Islam.

The difference between Forex and Stock

Forex Market

• 2-Way Market
• Buyers and sellers no limit
• Traders can trade anytime, 24 hours from Monday to Friday (00:00 GMT)
• Traders can buy and sell currency
• Not in the manipulation of any party
• Can buy at lower prices and sell at high prices (simultaneously)

Stock Market

• 1-Way Market
• Buyers and sellers of limited
• Traders can trade at working hours only
• Traders can buy and sell shares
• Easy manipulation by some
• Need to buy at lower prices and sell at high prices

Forex Account Type

There few types of accounts in forex, which are the Regular and Mini Account,an accounts usually have a leverage.Leverage is the form of loans given by the broker to the trader (forex player's), this is calculated as a ratio such as 1:200 or 200:1. devoted to the mini account traders with any sensible small capital traders got times for large capital is devoted in the Regular account.

The difference between the Mini Account and Regular Account

Mini Account

• In the matter in the form of cent
• Capital issued by the broker for a lot = 10,000
• Leverage has a large

Regular Account

• In Count in U.S. Dollar
• Capital issued by the broker for a 1 lot = 100,000
• Leverage has a small (some brokers provide great leverage)

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